The dumbest thing you’ll read today

Here. This from the guy who couldn’t predict a bubble in the housing market despite some very easy to see warning signs (like the extension of credit by instrument).

Penny Marshall dies and this motherfucker just goes on living. Tell me God doesn’t have a sense of humor.

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OMG! WTF!?!?? or, Pardon me, but could you tell my why my 401(k) is in the toilet?

The market has whipsawed back and forth like Florida Man on a meth bender. There are ton of answers as to why, but the simplest one that underlies everything is ‘instability’. Markets like to look 6 months into the future. That is about as far as they can go with any statistical reliability and that’s not saying much about the group who didn’t understand they were being sold trash at a premium in 2006-07. If they don’t feel comfortable ‘seeing’ six months out, then you have a prescription for instability. Everything becomes magnified… a trade spat between China and the US? Disaster. Interest rates going up? Disaster. A minor problem with a GS bond issue? Disaster. Leveraged loan issues increasing? Disaster. The Fed raising interest rates? Disaster.

That is what Trump has brought to global markets. Investors and traders feel like there’s no ground underneath them and they quickly rush to the relative safety of bonds and cash. These leaves a liquidity hole that causes an aggressive down draft in equity markets.

What is most shocking to me is that the Fed is actually feeding into this. As an economy, we are in uncharted territory. We have never seen a central bank carrying a balance sheet of $4 trillion and the question is, what to do about it? The answer is to let the balance sheet liquidate of it’s own accord, or runoff. There is no need to actively reduce assets through sales, they need only to let the assets ‘pay off’. Instead, they seem hell bent on aggressive sales of assets, just the thing you’d want to do when demand for credit is high and inflation is moderate to non-existent. Add to this the Fed’s desire to ‘normalize’ interest rates, without even a thought to the idea that we may be IN a new normal, and you have all the makings of a panic.

Over the long term, this will amount to little unless Powell continues to drive rates up DESPITE moderating inflation. My biggest fear right now isn’t a trade war with China, it’s Chair Powell deciding to continue on in the wrongheaded direction he’s been going.

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Andrew White : Fuck you, Ted Cruz was right (and Beto SUCKS)!

In today’s episode of OMG,THIS IS WHY I DIDN’T VOTE FOR YOU, Andrew White shares his feelings on how things went for Democrats this year…

I hate to admit it, but Ted Cruz was right. Beto O’Rourke was too liberal for Texas voters. Despite his magnetic charisma, unending work ethic and $70 million war chest, O’Rourke lost — and he lost even though he had almost double the votes of any other Democrat in Texas midterm history. So, what happened? The 254-county strategy didn’t work as planned.

Well, that’s one way of looking at it… another would be that he was touring the state to raise name ID and media interest. Which worked. Sure, I think there was a little bit of doe eyed belief that he could convince rural Republicans to vote for him. I remember hearing a story about how warmly he was received at a Dairy Queen in Pampa and I explained to the person who told the story that people in West Texas are very nice. They’re Texans… polite, willing to listen, and fully capable of shaking your hand and wishing you well without any intention of voting for you. But ultimately, I don’t think he believed he was going to peel off enough R votes in the rural counties to win.

And I feel pretty confident about this because Beto isn’t a dumbass.

Andrew, of course, can’t stop himself and continues the erroneous belief that somehow we have to have rural votes without really understanding what happened this year…

But I think O’Rourke might have missed the point. My father’s advice wasn’t just about visiting rural counties, but also about representing them, and it’s clear that didn’t happen. Rural voters sided sharply for Ted Cruz, giving him 75 percent of the vote in Texas’ 191 rural counties, which made up 11 percent of the total electorate. With Democratic strongholds in urban centers and gains being made in the suburbs, O’Rourke lopsided rural loss proved to be the deciding factor.

And it shocked absolutely no one because it’s gone that way in every election since, what, 98? 2002? To return to the story above, let me tell you about meeting with a large group of farmers from the Tulia area in 2006 and having one of them tell me that they liked what Hank Gilbert, who was running for Ag Commissioner, had to say but they were absolutely going to vote for the Republican. They didn’t care who he was, they were going to vote them.

The more important thing that’s apparently lost on Andrew is that Republicans have maxed out in the rurals and it was barely enough to hold them this cycle. That won’t be the case in 2020 and especially not in 2022. The growth is in the metros and D’s are gaining there. Beto made up one million votes on the margin between Cornyn and Alameel in 2014. Republican votes did increase massively in 2018, but the D votes went up way more, that’s going to continue as the millennials become more engaged. What will also continue? The death of the Republican base… you can see it in an actuarial table.

Andrew White should be able to see this but he’s still too wound up with anger over losing in a primary runoff to a candidate without a real campaign. I would like to wish him well… but really, what’s the point? He’s a petty bitch.

Posted in Stupid Democratic Tricks, Texas, You SUCK, You're Still Here? | Comments Off on Andrew White : Fuck you, Ted Cruz was right (and Beto SUCKS)!

What New Normal?

Folks still waiting on the religious right to see the light?

Mobile, Alabama Ashland Place United Methodist Church member Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III quoting biblical verse to justify inhumanity is the continuation of this country’s long history of toxic Christianity, much from the American south. Using this “faith” to crush righteous outrage is not only strategy, but a way of life of more than many of us want to admit.

Frederick Douglass: “I assert most unhesitatingly, that the religion of the South is a mere covering for the most horrid crimes–a justifier of the most appalling barbarity, a sanctifier of the most hateful frauds, and a dark shelter under which the darkest, foulest, grossest, and most infernal deeds of slave holders find the strongest protection. Were I to be again reduced to the chains of slavery, next to that enslavement, I should regard being the slave of a religious master the greatest calamity that could befall me. For of all slaveholders with whom I have ever met, religious slaveholders are the worst. I have ever found them the meanest and basest, the most cruel and cowardly, of all others.”

Knowing what some family members and friends think of immigrants is not surprising, but what really hit hard is their base cruelty towards these children and parents.

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Religious Left makes another attempt to become relevant

So now Religious Liberals are woke. Better late than never, I guess. Here’s the issue – they want to frame it as Trump’s policies, when it’s been conservative ideology for the past 40 years, and they have accomplished very little to fight it, even though the Evangelist Left has damn well known the whole time that this ideology is destructive

When Rev. Jim Wallis, the evangelical social justice advocate says “Most progressive religious leaders I talk to, almost all of them, feel dissed by the left. The left is really controlled by a lot of secular fundamentalists,” he is as tone-deaf as ever. Many on the left have reached out over the years, only to be stymied by religious liberal leaders and groups equivalating the two major political parties as not to step on toes, though abortion politics or what is going into the church’s coffers play very big roles. After awhile, you just stop asking and go to avenues that are going to be more constructive to your causes.

Let me be clear here. From someone who immersed himself in church social justice issues, and co-founded a diocese social justice advocacy group, my experience is when push comes to shove, the evangelical left is going to back down because of their pacifist nature. Will this time be different? Seeing their many unsuccessful resurgence attempts since the 1970s, I’m hard-pressed to think this will succeed since their fallback excuse for failure is to blame the left for being too diverse.

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He Was No Angel

Gregg Allman even sang about it. Since his death, many have shared their remembrance of him. This is mine.

The Allman Brothers were playing Tampa Stadium in January 1973. The opening band, ZZ Top, who had not yet released La Grange and were not well-known in Florida, played songs mostly from their first two albums, which consisted of gritty blues-inspired rock.
Fifteen minutes or so after the band was finished, several members of the Allman Brothers took the stage and started tuning their instruments. This turned into 30 minutes with still no sign of Gregg. In those days, the poisons of choice of concert-goers were weed and Boone’s Farm (security was not what it is today). Many were either stoned or on the verge of sickness, so the delay in the start of the band’s performance was no big concern. However, after about an hour of this constant tuning, the crowd was getting restless.

Suddenly, Gregg is being led onto the stage by two security-looking/roadie types, each had control of Gregg’s arms, who was staggering, and close to falling to the floor. They placed him in front of a mic, and the band started playing. To his credit, he perked up after a few music bars, and really put on a great concert. I’m not sure how he got to this condition, but speculate that with his spiraling drug problem and fondness for the erotic side of life, they found him at the 2001 Odyssey, a notorious nudie bar only a couple of blocks from the stadium, known for entertaining big names that came through town.

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Roger Ailes Dead At Last

There is a quotation, oft misattributed  to Mark Twain but actually the product of Clarence Darrow.

I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure.

It’s well worth taking a little break to savor the death of Roger Ailes, ousted former head of Fox News, tidings so glorious that they are but slightly diminished by knowing the end did not come with his head in a basket.


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Let the Factions Battle it Out

Last week, Bernie Sanders returned to the Lone Star State on a Democratic Party unity tour. Like clockwork, Clinton supporters were in meltdown as they continued their condescension, guilt-tripping, and misreading of Sanders supporters. What is even more annoying is their calling anyone who doesn’t bow to incrementalism as naive.

So is this their way to destroy the passion and involvement of those who have involved themselves in what has been called a political revolution; jealous and resentful of those that would replace the old guard, and diminish their influence and ability to still find an audience from their soapbox, or is it that the Clintonites still will not admit that their candidate and campaign were flawed, and will attack any and all that mention this?

What Sanders has been saying since the election is appropriate and needed because the party is continuing their centrism and Third Way. People can argue about the primary and the aftermath, but some don’t want to confront that Republicans control 32 state legislatures, 33 governorships, and the U.S. Congress. The Dems are almost extinct in the South. Bernie Sanders, Russian trolls, James Comey, and any number of excuses does not answer why this has happened.

Which brings up the DCCC. After forfeiting involvement in the Kansas special election, the committee spent more than $8 million for Georgia 6. The result is Ossoff drew only a slightly larger percentage of the vote than Hillary Clinton. 30,000 Democrats failed to turn out, of which if 5500 of them had shown up, he would have won outright, and now faces a runoff which he could lose. At this point, the committee is winless in the 2017-18 season. As an organization that has been in existence for 150 years, saying that all this is part of finding the right strategy leading up to the 2018 mid-term, speaks volumes about the lack of understanding the needs of voters. If their main plan is to attack Trump as a path to victory, hopefully this poll, that shows 96% of those who supported him in the election would do it again, will give them something to ponder.

The poll also states this:
“Still, the national survey also finds some brighter spots for the president –- chiefly in pushing for jobs and in foreign policy –- as well as deep popularity problems for the opposition party. Sixty-seven percent say the Democratic Party is out of touch with the concerns of most Americans, even more than say the same about Trump, and similar to the Republican Party (62 percent). That’s a steeply negative turn for the Democrats, 19 percentage points more critical than when last asked three years ago, including especially steep losses in their own base.”

Of course, this will not prevent Clintonites from blaming Sanders and his followers

As it stands, unity is overblown, let the factions battle it out. The debate itself between Sanders and Clinton supporters has very little to do with the mood of the voters. Surveys since the election that have asked people what concerns them have not seen any mention of this friction between the followers of both.

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Steve Bannon sucks dick so well that he can use his tongue on your balls while you’re down his throat.

Earlier today, the President said, once again, he was going to redo NAFTA which he’s been on about for a really long time. Too long, in fact, to have not already done something about it. He also needs to do something about Bannon being on the NSC because he doesn’t belong there. He belongs on his knees in a washroom, pulling a train.

Posted in America FUCK YEAH | Comments Off on Steve Bannon sucks dick so well that he can use his tongue on your balls while you’re down his throat.

Thank you…

After what was a pretty horrible result on Tuesday in the Presidential election, it’s important to remember that not everything was bad news. Voters elected some new Democratic Senators in IL, ME, and NV. Nevada itself turned blue and the new Governor of North Carolina is likely going to be a Democrat. Here in Texas, Harris County joined Dallas and Travis Counties in the blue column and in the Presidential race, Trump bested Clinton by only 600k votes (in 2012, Obama lost Texas by 1.2mn).

In 2018, Texas can flip.

To everyone to who worked hard, from the campaign staff all the way to the volunteers who blockwalked and phone banked until they just couldn’t do it anymore, you have our thanks for all your hard work.

And to the candidates, those who won and who lost, you have our appreciation for putting yourself forward as a candidate for office. We are very proud of you all.

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